基于GBD数据的中国高体质量指数相关主动脉瘤疾病负担变化趋势分析
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作者:
作者单位:

中国医科大学附属盛京医院 肿瘤中心,辽宁 沈阳 110001

作者简介:

张元元,中国医科大学附属盛京医院健康管理师,主要从事普通外科疾病管理方面的研究。

通讯作者:

杨柳,Email: yangliu_sj@163.com

中图分类号:

R654.3

基金项目:


Trends in disease burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high body mass index in China based on GBD data
Author:
Affiliation:

Department of Oncology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, China

Fund Project:

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    摘要:

    背景与目的 主动脉瘤作为一种高致死率和高致残率的重大心血管疾病,已成为全球公共卫生的重要挑战。体质量指数(BMI)升高被证实是其独立危险因素之一,但高BMI所致主动脉瘤疾病负担在中国的长期趋势及其性别、年龄和区域异质性尚缺乏系统研究。本研究基于全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库,探讨1990—2021年中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤的疾病负担变化趋势,并与全球及不同社会人口指数(SDI)水平地区进行比较分析。方法 利用GBD 2021数据,提取1990—2021年间中国高BMI导致的主动脉瘤病死率和失能调整生命年(DALY)等指标,计算其年龄标准化病死率(ASMR)和年龄标准化失能调整生命年率(ASDR)。采用扩展年均变化百分比(EAPC)和Joinpoint回归模型评估长期趋势,并基于自回归积分滑动平均模型预测2022—2036年疾病负担的未来趋势。结果 研究期内,中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤死亡数和DALY分别增长近7倍。ASMR由1/10万上升至3/10万(EAPC=3.91),ASDR由23/10万升至74/10万(EAPC=4.11),增长趋势显著。男性在各年龄段均承受更高负担,65岁以上人群尤为突出。分解分析显示,男性负担上升更多受益于流行病学改善,女性负担则主要由人口老龄化驱动。与美国和全球趋势相比,中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤负担增长速度更快,且未来15年仍将维持高位。结论 中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤疾病负担持续攀升,呈现显著的性别与年龄差异。应加强对高危人群的体质量管理、健康干预与早期筛查,以遏制疾病持续上升趋势,优化公共卫生资源配置。

    Abstract:

    Background and Aims Aortic aneurysm, a major cardiovascular disease with high mortality and disability rates, has emerged as a critical global public health challenge. Elevated body mass index (BMI) has been confirmed as an independent risk factor for aortic aneurysm. However, the long-term trends and heterogeneity of the disease burden attributable to high BMI in China-across sex, age, and region-remain insufficiently studied. This study, based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, aimed to analyze the changes in the disease burden of high BMI-related aortic aneurysm in China from 1990 to 2021 and compare these trends with those in global and socio-demographic index (SDI)-stratified regions.Methods Data from GBD 2021 were used to extract mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were calculated. Long-term trends were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Joinpoint regression models. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to project trends from 2022 to 2036.Results During the study period, deaths and DALY from aortic aneurysms attributable to high BMI in China increased nearly sevenfold. ASMR rose from 1 to 3 per 100 000 population (EAPC=3.91), and ASDR increased from 23 to 74 per 100 000 (EAPC=4.11), both showing a marked upward trend. Males consistently bore a higher burden across all age groups, particularly among those aged ≥65 years. Decomposition analysis revealed that the increased burden in males was mainly driven by epidemiological improvements, while that in females was primarily attributable to population aging. Compared with the United States and global trends, China exhibited a faster increase in high BMI-related aortic aneurysm burden, which is projected to remain elevated over the next 15 years.Conclusion The disease burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI continues to rise in China, with pronounced differences across sex and age. Targeted weight management, health interventions, and early screening strategies are urgently needed for high-risk populations to curb the upward trend and optimize public health resource allocation.

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张元元,王雅文,代阳阳,杨柳.基于GBD数据的中国高体质量指数相关主动脉瘤疾病负担变化趋势分析[J].中国普通外科杂志,2025,34(6):1157-1170.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.250283

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-01
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